Prediction Markets Favor Trump Comeback Despite Polling Headwinds

Prediction markets have been buzzing with activity over the last 48 hours, especially on Polymarket, which continues to dominate in volume. Currently, the top market there is the 2024 U.S. Presidential election, specifically whether Donald Trump will win. As of this morning, that market is pricing Trump at 57 cents, translating to a 57 percent chance, up from 53 percent just two days ago. The surprising upward movement comes despite mounting legal challenges and a recent dip in national polling, which suggests the market is factoring in non-polling data sources, like voter turnout modeling or sentiment signals from independent states.

Over on PredictIt, attention is locked onto congressional control outcomes. The market on whether Republicans will control both the House and Senate after the 2024 election moved dramatically after a key Senate polling shift in Arizona. The combined Republican control contract jumped from 44 cents to 51 cents, marking the first time that outcome has been favored in over three months. Arizona's Senate race tightened sharply after independent Senator Kyrsten Sinema announced she would not seek re-election, simplifying GOP calculations. That single event seems to have reset expectations across multiple markets.

Metaculus paints a slightly more conservative picture, with aggregated expert probabilities still placing Biden slightly ahead in reelection odds at around 52 percent. That said, their community forecast recently adjusted downward, moving from 55 percent for Biden about a week ago. Notably, Metaculus users also revised expectations about A-I regulation in the United States. A market asking whether there will be comprehensive federal legislation defining artificial intelligence safety standards before 2025 saw a 6 point drop, now sitting at 31 percent. Analysts there believe this reflects increasing partisan gridlock and the slow pace of current tech hearings in Congress.

One of the most interesting market moves in the past 48 hours came from a surprise political development in France. After unexpected comments by Marine Le Pen hinting at a coalition possibility with centrist parties, the market on a National Rally majority in the French Assembly on Polymarket dropped from 41 cents to just 28. That sharp crash in confidence reflects how quickly coalition talk in European parliamentary systems can upend previously firm predictions, and it serves as a reminder that qualitative statements can be just as influential as hard data.

A trend worth watching is the increasing disconnect between polling averages and market prices. For example, while polling continues to show Biden within striking distance in key swing states, most prediction markets have begun to favor Trump more decisively. This divergence suggests traders are either relying on alternative models or hedging against polling error. It also reflects greater confidence in Trump turnout, even if polling currently shows a close race. Whether this gap grows or tightens will say a lot about how markets really interpret credibility in traditional political forecasts.

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Prediction Markets Favor Trump Comeback Despite Polling Headwinds

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